Back to 2022: What Will Happen to Ukraine’s Exports If Shipping Through Greater Odesa Remains Suspended?

Just a month ago, Ukraine’s maritime exports were widely seen as one of the few pillars of stability amid the ongoing war. Following the reopening of the Black Sea shipping corridor, businesses gradually returned to familiar operating models, and the Black Sea once again became the country’s main transport artery.

However, the latest large-scale attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa and civilian vessels have dramatically changed the situation. Shipowners are postponing calls to Ukrainian ports, insurers are advising clients to avoid additional risks, companies are suspending purchases at port terminals, and the market is increasingly reverting to scenarios that many believed had been left behind in 2022.

Yet the current situation differs fundamentally from the first months of the full-scale invasion. Back then, the main challenge was the physical absence of logistics routes. Today, Ukraine faces a different problem — the economics of exports.

“The events of the past few days have undoubtedly brought us back to the realities of 2022. At that time, shipping virtually came to a standstill, container lines suspended calls to Ukrainian ports, and general cargo transportation almost disappeared. However, there is one fundamental difference between 2022 and today. Back then, the key issue was the lack of infrastructure. Today, the main challenge is economic,” says GOL Commercial Director Volodymyr Guz.

Poland Will Not Become a Second Odesa

Following the outbreak of the full-scale war, Poland became Ukraine’s primary gateway to Europe. A significant share of both exports and imports has been routed through Polish ports, railways, and border crossings.

However, industry experts caution against assuming that Polish infrastructure can fully replace Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

“Poland is a critically important part of Ukraine’s alternative logistics network, but it cannot fully replace Ukraine’s deep-water ports. The scale is completely different. Bottlenecks remain at almost every stage: rail border crossings, different track gauges, intermodal terminals, and the Baltic port infrastructure. There is another important factor as well — Poland’s logistics system primarily serves the Polish economy,” says GOL CEO Pavlo Lynnyk.

According to him, the greatest risk lies not in any single infrastructure element, but in the simultaneous surge in demand across the entire logistics chain.

The first bottlenecks would emerge at rail border crossings, where cargo requires either transshipment or bogie exchange due to different rail gauges. This would be followed by congestion at intermodal terminals and, ultimately, a shortage of available capacity at Baltic ports.

Another challenge is that many logistics operators are already working close to full capacity. Over the past three years, businesses that relocated to western Ukraine have established stable logistics flows. A sudden return of large export volumes could quickly overload border crossings, terminals, and ports alike.

Ukraine Has Built a Different Logistics System

Despite the current challenges, comparing today’s situation with the spring of 2022 would be misleading.

Over the past three years, border infrastructure has been modernized, new railway capacity has been added, the Chop–Uzhhorod European-gauge railway has been launched, and the network of dry ports, terminals, and transshipment facilities has expanded. At the same time, businesses have invested in thousands of railcars, containers, grain wagons, and modern cargo-handling equipment.

“The most important achievement of the past three years is operational flexibility. Companies have learned to switch cargo quickly between road transport, rail, the Danube corridor, and maritime routes. This ability to rapidly adapt logistics has become one of the Ukrainian business sector’s greatest strengths,” Pavlo Lynnyk emphasizes.

In his assessment, both Ukraine and its neighboring countries are now significantly better prepared for crisis scenarios than they were three years ago.

But Logistics Is No Longer the Main Problem

The paradox of the current situation is that even when alternative routes exist, using them is not always economically viable.

In 2022, Ukrainian exports benefited from exceptional market conditions. Global supply shortages created such a wide gap between domestic Ukrainian prices and international market prices that exporters could absorb almost any logistics costs. That situation no longer exists.

“The global market is not willing to pay more simply because Ukrainian logistics has become more complicated. Returning to European routes therefore means more than just longer transit times — it means additional costs that someone has to absorb,” explains Volodymyr Guz.

He offers a simple example. If logistics costs for wheat once amounted to approximately $30 per tonne but have now risen to $60, while global wheat prices remain unchanged, those additional costs cannot simply be passed on to buyers.

“Either global commodity prices would have to increase, and today there are no clear reasons to expect that, or the purchase price paid to Ukrainian farmers will decline. At the moment, the latter appears to be the most likely scenario,” Volodymyr notes.

This is why the current crisis extends far beyond the transport industry. It directly affects farmers’ incomes, the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports, and the country’s foreign currency earnings.

Which Cargoes Will Change Routes First?

Containerized cargo, machinery, finished goods, certain chemical products, timber, and other high-value cargo remain the most flexible. For these cargoes, intermodal routes through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania remain technically feasible.

Bulk export commodities — including grain, oilseeds, iron ore, steel products, and other large-volume shipments — remain heavily dependent on Ukraine’s deep-water ports. Redirecting these cargoes to land routes would significantly increase logistics costs while placing additional strain on European transport infrastructure.

For this reason, GOL experts believe businesses are already diversifying their logistics routes while simultaneously hoping for the restoration of safe navigation in the Black Sea.

“We are seeing two distinct approaches among our clients. Some companies are postponing new shipments or immediately redirecting them through Poland, Romania, or other alternative routes. Others are adopting a wait-and-see approach, expecting that measures to protect commercial shipping will stabilize the situation in the near future,” says the GOL CEO.

Logistics Is No Longer the Biggest Challenge

The events of recent days have demonstrated that Ukraine is far better prepared for logistics disruptions than it was in 2022. Over the past three years, alternative transport corridors have been established, border infrastructure has been modernized, and businesses have learned to adapt quickly by switching routes and operating through multimodal logistics solutions.

At the same time, the current situation has exposed a different challenge. Three years ago, Ukraine was fighting for the physical ability to export its goods. Today, the key question is whether those exports remain economically viable. That is why the security of navigation in the Black Sea has once again become more than a transportation issue — it is now one of the defining factors for the resilience of the entire Ukrainian economy.