Complete blocking of the Polish border: are Ukrainian ready?
On February 14, the Polish union NSZZ RI “Solidarność,” as part of a 30-day general farmers’ strike, announced that all border crossings between Poland and Ukraine would be blocked. As of the morning of February 29, around 2,200 trucks were in queue at the “Krakivets,” “Yahodyn,” and “Rava-Ruska” checkpoints. The situation remains unchanged.
Global Ocean Link’s CEO Pavlo Lynnyk and Commercial Director Volodymyr Huz comment on how their company will respond to these new challenges. They discuss the company’s preparations for the new challenges related to the blockade and the alternative routes they are considering.
Volodymyr Guz: “We started preparing for the blockade in advance. Currently, it is difficult to predict how long it will last. So, we are considering various scenarios. One thing is certain: everyone is now seeing and preparing for the blockade not to end quickly. The Polish government is not intervening as it should. Therefore, we see that in the absence of necessary regulation, this will systematically repeat. The Poles have this opportunity, so they are using it. All messages that we will block in response are not very relevant. The reason is simple: as our dispatchers have stated, the ratio of our vehicles to theirs, even in imports, is about 1 to 20. So we need to comprehensively search for alternatives.
Currently, the supply of goods through Slovakia and Hungary is becoming more relevant. Furthermore, the already established rail routes will gain momentum in demand. They have been functioning uninterruptedly before, and given the current situation, they will be used even more frequently. We are talking about direct trains to the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia from cargo consolidation points in Ukraine.”
Regarding alternative routes, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary are interesting for carriers in this context. Pavlo Lynnyk considers: “Due to the blockade on the border with Poland, our company is actively analyzing alternative logistics routes and supply chain strategies. We are considering the use of different modes of transport – maritime and alternative land routes. This could be relevant to ensure the continuity of our operations.”
Volodymyr Guz also notes: “There is already a growing queue at the border crossing to Romania. The same situation happened to us in October-November 2023. Instead of 3–4 days of waiting at the border, we now have an approximate figure of 7–8 days. According to carriers, the queue continues to grow. Today, we are entering the off-season for grain. Everyone is waiting for China to ‘wake up’ and determine the main directions for shipping the remnants of the last season. Regarding the near-term dynamics of queues at the border with Romania, it will largely depend on the situation in Poland, as these phenomena are interconnected.”
“Among the considered alternative routes, we are exploring the possibility of using southern corridors through Slovakia or Hungary. We are also considering maritime routes that may involve delivering goods through the Black Sea to other European ports. The choice of each route depends on many factors, including cost, transit time, and the current geopolitical situation. We are conducting a thorough analysis to determine the most effective alternatives. We lack existing logistical solutions to meet market needs. A systematic approach is needed to improve rail container transportation,” adds Pavlo Lynnyk.
Equally important is the issue of estimated losses for the company and the market in general. “The blockade can seriously impact both our company and the market as a whole. We expect increased transportation expenses and longer transit times, which may affect our service level and customer satisfaction. The market may experience a temporary shortage of goods and rising prices. Quantitative assessment of these losses is difficult, but we are preparing financial models to assess the impact in various scenarios. We are also closely working with industry associations and exploring the broader impact on the market,” says Pavlo Lynnyk.
Volodymyr Guz adds on the issue of estimated losses: “These losses are approximately $1,500-2,000 per container. If converted to a ton, it is about 60–80 euros per ton, which the final sender and/or recipient bears, depending on the contract terms. Clearly, this will worsen the current competitiveness of our exporters. On the other hand, we, as direct consumers, will overpay this amount when buying imported goods, as it will be directly passed on to us.” Thus, the current situation at the borders creates a whole range of different consequences. Expert assessment from the leadership of Global Ocean Link, a leader in Ukraine’s transport and logistics industry, only confirms this conclusion.