Logistics Challenges, Risks, and Trends in 2026
In the challenging conditions of wartime, Ukrainian logistics continues to face a wide range of risks and challenges. These are constantly evolving, as the field is highly dynamic and influenced by both domestic processes and international factors.
CEO Pavlo Lynnyk and Commercial Director Volodymyr Huz discuss the current context for logistics companies.
What logistics solutions do you consider most effective for mitigating risks in 2026?
Volodymyr Huz: In 2026, the key factor for resilience is diversification and supply chain controllability, rather than relying on a single “ideal” route. When distributing flows, one must consider local risks perceived by importers. Insurance and tariffs are also vital issues. It is particularly worth noting that insurance services have surged in price and continue to get more expensive—rising from 1% to 3.5%.
Poland remains a key hub. We can assume that in March, this traffic will continue to be oversaturated. However, it remains effective as it allows for work with various transport modes—container ships, trucks, and rail. By the way, rail can reach the final destination directly (which is cheaper but not very fast) or, for example, go to the Mostyska border crossing, from where the cargo can be picked up by truck.
One should not forget other European alternatives. Constanța hasn’t gone anywhere and has become more active as of today. It is a sort of European “Plan B.” Similarly, Rijeka remains a solid hub for rail service via Budapest, which is a good option for certain importers.
If we are talking about connections with Northern and Central Europe, the USA, Canada, and South America, then Germany and the Benelux countries can be considered alternatives to Poland. This is relevant for high-margin goods where one wants to avoid the risks in Poland, such as the port closures seen in early January.
Pavlo Lynnyk: From our experience, the most effective solutions are: multimodal routes with the ability to quickly switch between ports, countries, and transport modes; the regionalization of logistics and use of dry ports, border hubs, and temporary storage warehouses closer to the client; and combining shipping lines with alternative services to avoid dependence on a single global player.
Effectively, in 2026, the winner is not the one who is cheaper, but the one who is more stable and adapts faster.
What changes in carrier behavior are you already recording at the beginning of 2026, and what do you expect in the next 6–12 months? Are you seeing a return of the fleet to traditional routes, or is the priority still on alternative paths?
Volodymyr Huz: Regarding road carriers, we are currently observing an increase in tariffs. This applies to truck and container transport both within Ukraine and in international logistics. However, it is important to understand the market context: prices are simply rising to market levels and moving away from the dumping that characterized last year. Therefore, current price levels are market-optimal rather than inflated.
An identical trend is observed in the break-bulk fleet. Small dry-cargo vessels (3,000–5,000 tons) have nearly doubled their freight costs in the Black Sea. For example, six months ago, import tariffs to Ukraine were $20–$25 per ton; now they are around $40 per ton.
Conversely, container prices to Ukraine continue to decrease. Precise pricing depends on the factor of traffic returning to the Suez Canal. As of now, CMA has announced they are not returning, while MAERSK has returned with two services.
Pavlo Lynnyk: Overall, carriers are becoming more pragmatic. they are conducting fewer experiments and focusing more on profitable and predictable routes. Transport prices are also rising. The winner is the one who provided work early on, but no one intends to hold back tariffs or prices while demand exists.
Thus, alternative routes (via Poland, the Baltics, Southern Europe, and multimodal corridors) remain a priority, especially for Eastern Europe and Ukraine. At the same time, carriers are reducing their risk tolerance. They are reviewing terms more frequently, introducing surcharges, and shortening free time.
What do you think will be the main challenges in your industry throughout 2026?
Volodymyr Huz: It is important to mention the underloaded export format in Ukraine regarding containers. Imports heavily prevail over exports. There are currently no signs that Ukrainian exports will begin to be accounted for in full-scale volumes. Therefore, I predict this trend will persist for the near future, and possibly for all of 2026.
Pavlo Lynnyk: Major trends will also include the unpredictability of geopolitics and regulatory decisions, which can instantly change routes, rates, and infrastructure availability; a deficit of quality infrastructure on alternative corridors, as warehouses, terminals, and rail hubs do not always keep up with demand; and pressure on margins, as clients expect “peacetime” service levels despite increased costs and risks.
Additionally, a human resources challenge is emerging. There is a growing need not just for logisticians, but for specialists who think in terms of scenarios, risks, and finance.
Adapting to all these challenges is a necessity for a modern logistics company. You either adjust to them or leave the market—these are today’s realities.