Will the Shift of Container Traffic to Poland Impact Ukraine’s Economy?

As of today, approximately 2/3 of container imports into Ukraine come through the Polish route.

For many, this looks like a warning sign: businesses are redirecting their logistics to neighboring countries, and Ukrainian ports are gradually losing volume. But it is important to understand the key point: this is not a matter of betraying Ukrainian logistics or making a final market choice. It is a rational business adaptation to wartime conditions. Today, companies choose routes that allow them to:

• ensure supply stability;
• reduce operational risks;
• achieve delivery predictability;
• minimize the impact of force majeure on supply chains.

And the Polish route, in many cases, delivers exactly that. However, there is another side to this situation that needs far more attention today.

The loss of cargo is not just about ports

When container flows move outside the country, Ukraine loses not only a share of port revenue. We lose:

• the development of our own logistics infrastructure;
• the pace of operational expertise;
• the investment attractiveness of the industry;
• part of the economic added value generated around ports;
• the incentive to develop adjacent services.

Logistics is not a standalone service sector. It is the infrastructure of the economy. The less the national logistics system operates, the harder it becomes to maintain its competitiveness in the future. And this raises the question: could the temporary shift of cargo to Poland become a structural market change? That risk genuinely exists.

During the war, businesses learned to operate through alternative routes. In that time, some international companies have already restructured their logistics models, adapted contracts, and integrated new warehouses, terminals, and transportation solutions. Meanwhile, neighboring countries are actively investing in their own infrastructure.

While Ukraine is forced to restore and maintain its existing system under constant risk, Poland and other regional countries are building new terminals, modernizing ports, and expanding logistics capacity. If Ukrainian logistics does not systematically strengthen its competitive advantage, some cargo flows may remain on external routes even after the war ends.

But this does not mean the situation is critical or irreversible.

The market is already showing signs of a return

Despite all the risks, container shipments through Ukrainian ports grew by approximately 43% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025. For the market, this is a very important signal — businesses are gradually testing a return to traditional Ukrainian routes and adapting to current conditions. And this points to several important things.

First, modern logistics no longer operates on an either/or model. Companies diversify risks and use multiple routes simultaneously.

Second, Ukrainian ports remain competitive in certain directions even now — both in terms of speed and cost.

Third, the market is showing a readiness to return cargo to Ukraine when the level of risk becomes predictable.

And that last point is the most important.

What can realistically accelerate the return of container flows?

The next 1–2 years will be defining for the entire industry. In my view, several areas could have the greatest impact.

1. Predictable security guarantees For international business, what matters is not just security itself, but the predictability of operations. If a company understands that a logistics route functions stably, has clear procedures, and minimizes the risk of supply disruptions — the market is ready to return.

2. Competitive tariff policy Ukrainian ports must not merely resume operations — they must offer the market a genuine economic advantage. Processing speed, service costs, terminal efficiency, and synchronization with rail and road logistics are all critically influencing business decisions today.

3. Concessions and the entry of international operators The discussion around granting a concession on part of the Chornomorsk state enterprise to international players is very telling. Global operators only enter markets where they see long-term potential, making this an important indicator of confidence. A concrete confirmation of this trend was the acquisition of a 49% stake in KTO (Odesa Container Terminal) in 2023–2024, which demonstrated the readiness of global capital to invest in Ukrainian port assets even under high-risk conditions. Moreover, another major infrastructure deal in the port sector is expected this year — one capable of definitively cementing Ukraine’s status as a strategic maritime hub.

4. Infrastructure investment even in turbulent times The biggest mistake is waiting for better times. Logistics infrastructure is not built in a matter of months. Countries that invest in ports, terminals, and transportation solutions during crises gain a strategic advantage for years after stabilization.

Ukrainian logistics has already proven its ability to adapt to unprecedented conditions. Over recent years, the market has learned to rapidly restructure routes, operate under difficult circumstances, and find solutions where yesterday they seemed impossible.

So today I see no grounds for panic. But I do see a clear need to act.