Is there air cargo in Ukraine?

Since February 24, 2022, Ukrainian airspace has been closed to civil aviation; however, this does not mean that air logistics has disappeared. It has simply moved geographically beyond the country’s borders. Let’s take a closer look at how this process unfolds.

Situation Assessment 2022–2025: Is there air cargo in Ukraine?

Let’s briefly review the chronology.

2022: The day civil aviation stopped

With the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, flights ceased. The closure of airspace for civil aviation and cargo became a breaking point. Adaptation to new, complex conditions and the search for alternatives began.

2023: The market restructured with the involvement of neighbors

In 2023, air logistics adapted to the specifics of martial law. Now, cargo and passengers reach hubs in Poland, Slovakia, etc., by road or rail—and fly or ship as air cargo from there. This created a kind of “new normal,” where the phrase “air from Ukraine” became firmly associated with “air via neighbors.” Naturally, this term implies additional costs, time, and the risks of the inland leg.

2024: The return of the reopening theme—but in the language of risk

Up to a certain point, when it seemed to society that the war might end sooner, one could hear the question: “When will the sky open?” The discourse of 2024–2025 has changed.

Public signals about partial restoration scenarios appear periodically. For example, this could involve a single airport, limited routes, and additional security protocols. However, the key issue hinges on the risks of strikes, air defense operations, insurance, and liability.

2025: Insurance as the market’s “on/off switch”

Previously, there were even statements about a potential launch of flights in early 2025, but even then, it was presented as an “if we’re lucky” scenario contingent on insurance solutions. As of today, it is finally clear: airlines will not enter without a proper insurance solution.

For instance, Crispin Ellison, a senior partner at the insurance company Marsh McLennan, stated during the Kyiv International Economic Forum in 2024 that flights could resume by the end of January 2025 at one of Ukraine’s airports, specifically “Lviv” or “Boryspil.”

We now see how much unfounded optimism was present in such interpretations of possible future events.

Infrastructure: Airports must be restored even before the first flight

A separate layer of the 2022–2025 reality is airport infrastructure. It has been officially stated that a significant portion of civil airports sustained damage. This means that “opening” does not equate to “flying tomorrow.” To resume flights in Ukraine, inspections, restoration of systems, personnel, procedures, and certifications are required.

In terms of figures, as early as 2024, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal stated that 15 civil airports had been damaged since the Russian invasion. Even then, the official noted that the military situation and security issues were key to the decision to open airports.

That is why airports in Ukraine must be restored even before the first flight. This is what a sober assessment looks like, devoid of unreasonable optimism in futuristic forecasts. The reality of the previous years has shown that wishful thinking leads to disappointment when desires clash with reality; dreams of returning to a pre-war state cannot be built solely on nostalgic expectations but must have a solid foundation.

For whom the aviation sector is critical even in 2022–2025

Despite the difficult situation in air logistics, this sphere remains critically significant for a number of Ukrainian business sectors, including:

• International E-commerce and Retail: For businesses specializing in sales via Amazon and Etsy, delivery through airports in Poland, Budapest, Vienna, Prague, and Frankfurt provides the speed necessary to remain competitive globally.

• Electronics Manufacturing: Specifically regarding the export of microchips, sensors, and other components. Logistics delays can lead to the shutdown of entire production lines.

• Defense Industrial Complex: Air delivery is vital for supplying spare parts for Western equipment, as well as transporting ammunition and drone systems.

• Pharmaceuticals and Medicine: This involves specific medications and vaccines supplied from abroad.

  These examples do not cover the entire spectrum of industries dependent on air communication, but for them, this format of logistics is especially significant.

Adaptation to changes in air logistics: A specific example

Currently, the actual share of air cargo in GOL’s portfolio is small, accounting for about one percent; however, some significant trends are worth noting:

• The growth rate was highest during the 2024–2025 period.

• For 2026, a similar recovery pace is expected for this direction (at least 2x–3x).

  The most frequent requests include EXW China – Budapest – Kyiv, as well as repackaging services in China or Budapest.

  Despite the lack of direct communication, the air market in Ukraine is undergoing rapid development driven by the demands of the e-commerce sector. Although statistics on air transport are unavailable, it is suggested that Ukraine has not lagged far behind neighbors like Hungary and Poland, which saw 35–40% growth respectively in 2024–2025.

2026+ Scenarios

To avoid falling into unfounded expectations, forecasts should be built realistically. Thus, two key scenarios are worth mentioning:

1. Opening of one airport and operation on limited routes. This is roughly the scenario mentioned above with reference to Crispin Ellison—with the caveat of a 1+ year time shift, as he gave that forecast for early 2025 back in 2024.

2. Longer airport closure, depending on the dynamics of hostilities. If the sector develops according to this scenario, it will involve the growth of border hubs and an emphasis on multimodality.

   Which of these options will be realized in practice depends directly on the specific military situation.

The Bottom Line…

Thus, answering the key question of this review: yes, air transport exists as part of the chain, but not as domestic flight infrastructure. For real changes, the market will wait not for promises, but for published criteria regarding security, insurance, and readiness. Only this will revitalize the aviation sector and ensure a gradual return of its dynamics.