Even in early 2026, one might have had the impression that the air cargo market had begun to calm down. After the high volatility of previous periods, rates on the Asia-Europe route appeared more restrained, and the market showed signals of aligning supply and demand. In the first quarter, the rate on the Asia-Europe corridor dropped to $3.64 per kilogram, compared to $5.28 a year earlier. But air freight is a logistics segment where calm almost never means stability.
Recent weeks have proven this once again. Global air cargo transportation is back to operating in a rapid restructuring mode. The year started with strong demand: IATA recorded a growth in global air cargo demand of 5.6% in January and 11.2% in February year-on-year. However, by spring, the market began moving again under geopolitical pressure due to the conflict in the Middle East, problems with air routes, rising fuel prices, and a new shift of some urgent cargo from sea to air. By mid-April, the average global spot rate rose to $3.76 per kilogram, which is 37% higher than a year ago.
“The problem with the market today is not just that air freight can become more expensive. The problem is that it becomes less predictable precisely at the moment when businesses need predictability the most. When rates on certain routes jump by tens of percent, when hub facilities face capacity reductions, and cargo follows detour routes, a company can no longer afford the luxury of thinking in terms of a single flight or a single rate. Due to current disruptions, forwarders began looking for completely atypical routes for cargo from Asia to Europe, even including transit through Los Angeles. This is a good indicator of how atypical the market has become,” – Pavlo Lynnyk, CEO of GOL.
For Ukrainian business, this change is particularly noticeable. Since the closure of Ukraine’s airspace, air transportation has long ceased to be a direct service. Today, it is a multi-link system involving an Asian departure airport, a European entry hub, a road leg, customs coordination, a delivery schedule, and a set of risks that must be kept under control at every stage. This is why the real price of air logistics consists of more than just the rate per kilogram. It consists of available capacity, the right hub, connection time, risk of delay, and the ability to quickly switch routes. In other words, consolidation, choosing the optimal hub, long-term contracts, flexible routing, and the Air + Road combination have become basic cost management tools today rather than an option.
In 2026, air freight no longer sells speed as its primary value. It sells control. Control over the delivery time. Control over the situation when the sea has become too slow, and production or sales can no longer wait, the CEO of GOL shares his opinion. This is why air freight is now especially important for electronics, pharmaceuticals, auto components, high-value goods, and urgent industrial components.
“Therefore, for business today, the question is no longer: ‘How much does air freight cost?’ It is more correct to ask another question: ‘Which part of my supply chain should air freight protect—and how to do it without losing control over the economics?’ This is where modern logistics begins. Not with an individual shipment. And not even with an individual tariff. But with the ability to assemble the right delivery model for a specific risk, a specific product, and a specific business goal. Therefore, in this new reality, the role of the logistics company is also changing. Previously, the market often looked at a forwarder as someone who organizes transportation. Today, that is no longer enough. Business needs a partner who does not just find a route but manages the entire logic of the supply: from choosing the corridor and hub to the cost model and backup scenarios. And this is exactly the role our company is moving toward today,” – Pavlo Lynnyk, CEO of GOL.
