Against the backdrop of strikes on Iran, industry media are recording a sharp deterioration in shipping conditions in the region: container carriers are introducing emergency measures to discharge cargo at the nearest safe ports and adding extra surcharges, some major lines are suspending new bookings on Middle Eastern routes, and insurers are canceling or radically revising rates.
What is scarier for the market: physical closure or a soft blockade? In practice, it is the soft blockade, driven by rising military risks and insurance costs, that often hits faster than a formal closure. Even without a complete shutdown of the route, the market loses predictability, available slots, and transparent pricing.
What can be advised to shippers and businesses?
Firstly, temporarily look toward other sales markets as an anti-crisis measure during this period of turbulence.
Secondly, try alternative logistics via the Western side. For example, the port of Jeddah, followed by rail delivery to the required point, depending on the geography and availability of the land leg.
Which cargoes, besides oil, will feel the consequences?
Everything related to the transportation of oil, or if the cargo contains refined oil products. According to GOL’s assessment, in the short term, the consequences will be felt by 15-20%, and if the conflict lasts more than 30 days – by 90% of all commodity groups, due to the cascading effect of freight, insurance, and schedule disruptions.
Will this situation affect cargo delivery to Ukraine and the Black Sea region as a whole?
The key effect of the current turbulence for Ukraine and the Black Sea region is through rates, service availability, and carrier decisions, rather than just the fact of escalation itself.
We see that some carriers are stopping shipments or transit for certain Middle Eastern countries, while others maintain delivery options but introduce outrageous surcharges.
Ukrainian business is ready to pay incredible money to keep contracts and bring goods on time, but obviously, this will not be the case for everyone.
Next, market mechanics kick in: if many lines have indeed canceled service for Middle Eastern traffic, then services, including Chinese ones, may turn out to be underloaded without this cargo flow. Consequently, they will have to be urgently loaded for other directions, which could potentially cause prices to roll back down.
Overall, this geopolitical instability increases ship freight prices. For bulk shipments, imports and exports from Ukraine are currently rising on average by five to ten dollars per ton.
At the same time, the direct trade blow from severing relations specifically with Iran is minimal for Ukraine. Imports from Iran in 2025 were estimated at only $17.5 million (about 0.02% of total imports), and exports were effectively at the level of statistical error.
But indirect risks for logistics and prices are significantly higher due to Ukraine’s ties with other Gulf countries.
Amidst the spike in energy prices, pressure is mounting on transportation costs and the cost of entire commodity groups. Separately, it can be noted that if such price dynamics hold for a month, Ukraine’s trade balance losses on oil and gas could amount to about $140 million for the period. At the same time, logistically, deliveries to countries in the region can continue through alternative gates – the ports of the Red Sea and Oman; therefore, it is more a matter of price, timing, and capacity availability than a complete halt in trade.
In general, the market is entering a phase where the speed of supply chain reaction becomes decisive. The longer military risks, insurance restrictions, and chaotic carrier decisions on services and bookings persist, the faster local turbulence turns into systemic price increases and capacity shortages far beyond the region.
Therefore, the coming weeks are about pragmatic risk management: alternative routes, flexibility, revision of delivery terms and conditions, and a readiness to pay for predictability where it still exists.
